Trump, Putin, Ukraine: what's going on?

As Christians, we know that “Blessed are the peacemakers” (Matthew 5:9).

And yet we also know that what is required is more than the absence of conflict, as important as that is. For justice, wholeness and restoration are also values that are deeply embedded in scripture. The Greek-speaking writers of the New Testament used the Greek word eirene to translate Hebrew shalom and communicate its values, derived as they are from a root denoting ‘wholeness,’ ‘completeness.’ This reminds us that, as Christians, we need to look at the content of peace and what it brings. Which brings us to the recent conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

The phone call between Trump and Putin, over Ukraine, raises the question of just what has this achieved regarding an end to the Russia-Ukraine War? In what way might it bring peace closer; and what might that peace be like?

It seems clear that Putin believes that agreeing to an unconditional ceasefire (which was the original basis of the phone call) would benefit Ukraine, and would also anger ultra-nationalist Russians who demand no concessions (as they view it) to Kyiv.

Consequently, he ducked the US demand – while appearing to partly engage with it by offering, instead, a moratorium on strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Imagine how Trump would have treated Zelensky if he had not accepted the Trump-narrative? We saw an example of this just a few weeks ago.

What is Putin’s strategy?

What is clear is that this position taken by Putin is stalling for time. In addition, his offer has less impact now that winter is largely past, with its peak energy demands. And, despite his counter-offer, the Russian drones and missiles are still targeting Ukrainian cities and killing Ukrainians. The war goes on, despite the phone call with Trump.

It is not difficult to understand why Putin has refused the idea of an immediate ceasefire. Delay in agreeing gives Russia time to force all Ukrainian military units out of Kursk Oblast. In this way, a delay strengthens the Russian negotiating position if Ukrainian forces are not sitting on Russian land when Ukraine comes to the negotiating table. Russia, in stark contrast, occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory and is demanding Odesa (it won’t get it).

The ‘master of the deal’?

What is intriguing is that Trump appears fairly happy with the way that the two-hour conversation with Putin went. He later described it as a “great call,” and went as far as accepting that achieving a full ceasefire “without going a little bit further, would have been tough.” This flexibility is in stark contrast with his treatment of Zelensky three weeks ago and his threats to increase US sanctions on Russia a couple of weeks ago (which he can’t really do without damaging Western interests and Russia has shown itself skilful in getting round sanctions via third parties). It looks like the US president’s bluff is being called.

All in all, the self-proclaimed "master of the deal" seems to be finding it harder to force concessions out of Russia than out of Ukraine. This is hardly surprising, given that Ukraine is dependent on US military hardware, intelligence sharing, and logistical support. Plus, when it comes to Russia (the aggressor), Trump seems to find within himself a flexibility that is markedly lacking when it comes to Ukraine (the victim of Russian aggression). Maybe this is rooted in his obvious personal attraction to Putin and his clear personal antipathy towards Zelensky. Or maybe it is simply that he cannot admit that he is being played by the president of the Russian Federation. Trump aggressively told Zelensky that he held no "cards." In contrast, it seems that Putin does hold some. And Trump seems suddenly unsure about the strength of his own ‘hand.’

Reflecting on this, makes one wonder whether there may also be more to it. It has been reported that, during their recent telephone call, Trump and Putin agreed that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel. What has this got to do with Ukraine? Well, maybe the Kremlin will be willing to abandon its ally Iran, if Washington will do this to Ukraine? Such a transaction might well suit Trump. It is clear that Ukraine can be denied US support in a way that would be unthinkable in US-Israel relations.

While this is happening…

In the run up to the telephone call, we can see that Putin is upping his demands. In an earlier meeting with Russian business leaders he demanded that Ukraine accepts Moscow’s annexation of four of its regions; and that any ceasefire must be accompanied by a freeze on Western (not just US) arms deliveries to Ukraine. This would be hugely to Russia’s advantage and massively detrimental to Ukraine.

As this is occurring, Europe remains largely sidelined by the US. This follows outspoken comments by European Commission’s Ursula von de Leyen, but was happening anyway. Furthermore, the Europeans (the UK included) are simply in no position to make up the shortfall should the US once again suspend military deliveries to, and intelligence sharing with, Ukraine.

The current state of affairs is well understood in Russia. Former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, has stated (in typically over-the-top ultra-nationalist style):

“The phone call between presidents Putin and Trump proved a well-known idea – there is only Russia and America in the dining room. On the menu: light appetisers – Brussels sprouts, British fish and chips and Paris rooster. The main course is a Kiev-style cutlet. Enjoy your meal!”

That such an outlook is encouraged by current US actions and attitudes should be a matter of real concern.

Which is a reminder that the command of Jesus to turn the other cheek (Matthew 5:39) and go the extra mile (Matthew 5:41) is about personal sacrifice and not something that should be forced on another person. As we reflect on the role of Trump the peacemaker, it is necessary to ask just what kind of peace is being negotiated and at what cost to Ukraine.

But at least the peace talks go on…