In five years’ time there could be no private care homes left in the UK, according to independent Think Tank ResPublica.
‘If nothing in the funding regime changes within five years, there will be a projected loss of 37,000 care beds as funding fails to meet demand. With the sector under immense financial strain, the likelihood is this time there will be no private provider of last resort.’
Other observers have predicted that if any care homes manage to weather the storm, they will only be available to a privileged few ‘self funders’, who don’t need Council funding and are able to pay for their care in full.
Local authority unable to pay
Typical of the storm is the situation in Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole, a region that has a relatively large older population. A Federation representing 105 homes in the area says that their local authorities have told them that they can’t pay the fees they themselves have agreed are reasonable. The President of the Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole Care Providers Federation commissioned a study which determined that the cost per week of caring for a frail older person was £609, rising to £661 for someone with dementia and up to £827 with nursing costs included.
However, the average fees paid by local authorities were calculated to amount to only £476 per week for care without nursing, and £585 for care with nursing, leaving a substantial shortfall. President of the Federation, Brian Westlake, said, ‘The local authorities decided they had identified some savings and brought it down to about £550 a week. Then they said they couldn’t accept the figure they had come up with themselves.’
Staff shortages
Mr Westlake said that care providers are facing a ‘perfect storm of challenges’. There is a severe shortage of care home managers, care assistants and nurses caused by generally high levels of employment nationally.
Care homes were struggling to afford wages in line with candidates’ aspirations and also the rising living wage. At the same time, he said, the Care Quality Commission’s new ‘robust Ofsted-type approach’ to inspections is an added worry for care home owners ‘struggling to maintain and pay a working staff’.
Chief Executive of the Pilgrims’ Friend Society (PFS), Stephen Hammersley, said that the increase in the cost of wages alone would amount to a 30% rise by 2020. PFS has housing and care homes in 16 locations in England, and in some locations up to 60 percent of care home residents are funded by their local authorities. ‘If it were not for our supporters and donors we would not be able to do the things we do,’ he said.
Switch in funding
Several years ago local authorities were instructed by the government to switch funding from care homes to care in their own homes in the community, even including people with complex needs. It means that people living in sheltered housing who would formerly have moved into the care home on the same site are cared for by Agency carers arranged by the Council. Some are not even able to obtain funding for this: Age UK says that up to a million people are facing ‘catastrophe’.
For many, it might have already happened. The UK Faculty of Public Health published figures showing an ‘inexplicable and unexpected’ rise in deaths of people aged 65 and over, particularly 80 year olds. Life expectancy was rising for this age group until 2013 when instead of being a positive figure of 6 years 40 weeks for a woman aged 85, it’s now a negative figure of minus ten weeks. Caroline Abrahams of Age UK said it was like the canary in the coal mine.
Unless we insist that the Government puts it right, the ‘perfect storm’ could mean catastrophe for all of us, for most of us are predicted to live to a good old age. The question is, how good will it be if there is no care and support?
