US Analysis: The (Dis-)United States of America

The USA is deeply divided.

Even as it was learning about the recent Supreme Court decisions on abortion, gun rights, and environmental protection, citizens were also watching the ‘January 6th’ hearings explore more of how Trump had urged an inflamed crowd – which, allegedly, he knew to be armed – to march down to the Capitol to ‘stop the steal’; but also to ‘fight like hell’ for what they wanted. And, allegedly, he would have accompanied them, if his security agents had not prevented him.

Then, on 4 July, a gunman carried out another mass shooting, in which six died and many more were wounded. In a nation where the Small Arms Survey estimated that there are 120.5 firearms per 100 residents, it almost looks as if the USA is equipping itself (both ideologically and in terms of armaments) for a new civil war.

What is most telling is that polling data continues to reveal that huge numbers of Americans will have viewed these events through diametrically different lenses, understood them (or even disputed their reality) in totally different ways, and used them to frame conflicting narratives of their nation’s past, present and – most ominously – its possible future.

The preface to The Civil War, narrated by Ken Burns for PBS America (first aired in 1990), concludes: ‘Between 1861 and 1865 Americans made war on each other and killed each other in great numbers, if only to become the kind of country that could no longer conceive how that was possible.’ In 2022 that assurance is far from certain and commentators now openly speak of a process by which the increasingly bitter ‘culture war’ of the past decade might develop into what was once thought unthinkable: violent civil conflict.

A month after the attack on the Capitol in 2021, polling revealed that almost three in ten Americans agreed that ‘If elected leaders will not protect America, the people must do it themselves, even if it requires violent actions.’ This view was held by 39% of Republicans. The key, of course, lies in what narrative of events people accept – and, in 2022, there remains bitter contention over that.

That division impacts on Christians too, with the declining – but still highly significant – demographic of white evangelicals lining up behind social concerns common to global evangelicals, but (alarmingly) combining this with adherence to a right-wing narrative (including issues like guns, that are alien to UK believers), and the most extreme aspects of neo-Trumpism and ‘Christian nationalism’ that continues to influence the trajectory of US politics. Research in 2021 found that white Christians (mostly evangelicals) who believe that ‘God has granted America a special role in human history’ were three times more likely (29% versus 10%) to also believe that political violence may be necessary.

It is difficult to imagine the USA descending into a classic civil war, despite its polarised ideologies and (at times) sclerotic political system. However, what is easier to imagine is a ‘slow-burn’ of increasingly common outbursts of armed violence, unrest on the streets, legislative paralysis, inflamed manipulation from media outlets, and political decisions that are bitterly opposed by many.

An actual civil war is hard to imagine. But then many did not foresee Trump persisting in opposing a constitutional transfer of power, nor vast numbers (including many evangelicals) continuing to sign up to this narrative. US evangelicals need to decide just how committed they really are to democracy, for all its failings. That includes peaceful dialogue with opponents, pursuit of social and economic justice, rejection of ‘Christian nationalism’ and ‘apocalyptic politics’ –and accepting when you lose an election.