Why has Donald Trump triumphed?

Donald Trump has become the only person – other than Grover Cleveland (president 1885–89 and 1893–97) – to serve non-consecutive presidential terms in the USA.

This has occurred less than four years since the apparent collapse of his political fortunes in the aftermath of January 6th, when it looked like the Republican Party might turn its back on the Trump years and reinstate a more familiar kind of conservative politics. But the reliance on the Make America Great Again (MAGA) base (whose support for Trump remained strong) proved too valuable to risk alienating. So, they were reconciled to Trump.

So, why has Trump now triumphed? The most obvious answer is that old jobs and economic ‘certainties’ no longer exist for many in the USA, as jobs have been lost to other nations. The ‘American Dream’ has apparently faltered, while many consider themselves marginalised by political elites. Racial divisions and inequalities add another painful component to the national scene. At the same time, changing patterns of modern life have left those with a traditional faith and cultural outlook feeling increasingly ignored. They often claim that their identity is mocked or dismissed. There are also unprecedented levels of migration, asylum seeking and undocumented incomers which have unsettled US society.

The failure of the Democrats

Harris and the Democrats lost for many reasons. They failed to address the crisis at the southern border or recognise that a recovering economy was undermined by inflation. Biden refused to stand down until forced and was replaced by a vice-president who did not enjoy the legitimacy that comes from winning in the party’s primary process. They failed to engage with more traditional faith and demographic groups, while actively promoting issues of sex and gender which left many outside this conversation feeling alienated.

Trump, in contrast, was skilful in speaking to these concerns and the Trump excesses were dismissed because he spoke to their anxieties about immigration and inflation in ways that Harris failed to do. In such a context, January 6th and the alleged threats to US democratic norms were outweighed by concerns regarding the southern border and the cost of living. Only time will tell if US democracy was undermined by voters focus on these other issues.

A lot of US evangelicals describe Trump as a modern ‘Cyrus’ (a king of Persia in the Old Testament): doing the will of God, even if not a Christian (some think he is) and regardless of the lies and coarse language he routinely deploys. In addition, the MAGA claims of ‘America First’ dovetail with ideas of American exceptionalism and nationalism. In many conservative Christian communities, there is also alarming scepticism about climate change, alongside strong views on abortion, and pro-Israel views on the Middle East. In these areas, they believe that Trump will largely reflect their views.

In conclusion, does Trump represent the ‘Cyrus’ figure, or does he simply feed off and amplify division for his own ends? Readers will have their own opinions. But American voters have had their say – and Trump is back. What this will mean for Ukraine, climate change, the Middle East, NATO, and global trade remains to be seen. The years ahead may be very turbulent. Time will tell just what US voters have done.